Role of Mathematical Models During COVID-19

Page: 15-17

Suman Sindhwani and Rachana Gupta (Department of Mathematics, Hindu Girls College, Sonepat, Haryana)

The spread of any epidemic depends on the infectivity of the pathogen and the available susceptible population. For a novel infection when disease dynamics are still unclear, mathematical modelling estimates the number of cases in worst and best case scenarios . Mathematical models can be used to understand spread of a virus within a population. Since COVID-19 transmission started , mathematical modelling has been at the forefront of shaping the decisions around different non- pharmaceutical interventions to confine its spread. Mathematical Modelling is a powerful tool for understanding transmission of COVID-19 and exploring different scenarios. One of the most significant thresholds when studying infectious disease models, which represents disease spread in a population is , the basis reproduction number. The basic reproduction number has an important role in controlling and spreading the disease. It is defined as the number of new infections spread by a single infected person or we can say it is defined as number of secondary infections. Based on transmission mechanism of COVID -19 in the population and the implemented prevention and central measures, different models have been established. Global emergency situation spreading all over the world within a very short time period was created because of novel coronavirus. Such infection has no vaccine or antiviral medicine available. A major problem started at that moment to control this pandemic. Symptoms of all coronavirus patients are almost same like respiratory problems, fever, dry cough, etc. India is a highly populated country so spread of this disease was at a very high level because of movement of large number of people from one place to another place due to job. The mathematical models that epidemiologists use to predict how infectious diseases spread can help to answer different queries arising. The simple epidemiological models are called S I R Models. More complicated models of same type, which researchers use to describe diseases typically have more compartments. In this paper a detail of mathematical models proposed by different researchers for epidemic prediction of COVID-19 projecting its spread, significance to epidemic preventions and control measures in India is discussed.