Marriage Duration and Stability in South Africa: A Survival Analysis of Demographic and Marital Characteristics

Description

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19627277

Muhammad Hoque (Department of Public Health, Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University, Pretoria, South Africa)

The longevity and sustainability of marriages have been found to be a product of a complex interaction of multiple factors, which have been explored by different researchers using different approaches. However, the integration of survival analysis and machine learning techniques has not been explored extensively. A retrospective study design, using a large database of married couples, was undertaken for this study. Descriptive statistics and exploratory data analysis techniques were applied to assess the demographic characteristics of the married couples. Additionally, correlation analysis was conducted to assess the associations between different variables. Furthermore, survival analysis techniques, such as Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, were applied to assess the longevity of marriages. The study found a significant age homogamy between married couples. Additionally, moderate concordance was found between married couples on aspects of marriage history. The study found that most married couples were young adults with a small family size, married for the first time. Furthermore, the study found that the probability of marriage survival decreases rapidly during the initial period of marriage duration, but later levels off. It was found that the duration of marriages is more heterogeneous for polygamous couples than for non-polygamous couples. This study highlights the significance of demographic factors, marriage history, and household structure with reference to marriage duration. This study is important for developing specific interventions for married couples. Additionally, this study highlights the significance of integrating advanced data analysis techniques for exploring aspects of marriage duration.