Time Series Analysis of Wheat Yield in Major Districts of Haryana using ARIMA

Description

Page: 297-300

Jyoti¹, Manju Loura², Sachin³, Megha Goyal⁴, Subodh Aggarwal⁵, Anamika⁶, and Neelam Kaushal⁷ (Department of Business Management, CCSHAU, Hisar, Haryana¹,²,³,⁴,⁵, School of Agricultural Sciences, GD Goenka University, Sohna, Haryana⁶, and Mittal School of Business, LPU, Phagwara, Punjab⁷)

In this work, an analysis of the wheat yield in six significant Haryana districts has been undertaken. Wheat yield has been analyzed using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, which was initially presented by Box and Jenkins in 1976. This method analyzes its trend and performs future estimation using historical data from univariate time series. It was discovered that the yield values that were observed are somewhat lesser than actual values and the yield ranges between 3tonne/ha to 6 tonne/ha and data was non- stationary for all the districts and differencing of order one was sufficient for getting an appropriate stationary series and ARIMA (1,0,1) helps in analysing the wheat yield.