Structural changes in India’s trade of pulses: A Markov approach

Pages: 438-441
Sanjay, Swamy H.M., Sunita Yadav, and Krishan Yadav (Department of Agricultural Economics, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar, Haryana)

To access the growth and structural changes taking place in pulses area, production, productivity and trade aspects this analysis was carried out for a period of 10 years ranging from 2007-08 to 2016-17. It was done by calculating compound and simple growth statistics and by developing separate transitional matrix for exports and imports. Results regarding area, production, productivity, collective quantity and value of exports exhibited 1.88 per cent, 3.63 per cent, 1.71 per cent, 5.45 per cent and 3.23 per cent rate of compound growth rate respectively. Markov chain analysis was attempted through linear programming method to assess the transition probabilities for the major pulses export markets of Indian pulses and nations importing pulses to India. The major Indian pulses export markets were categorized as stable market (UAE) and unstable markets (Pakistan & Saudi Arab) based on the magnitude of transition probabilities. The import transition matrix also brought forward Canada and Myanmar as most trusted and Australia & USA as most unstable suppliers of Indian pulses imports. In conclusion, the growth in production (3.63 %) of the world’s largest producer was far behind the simultaneous growth in import quantity (17.12 %).